● SIGNALS LIVE · CPI cooling FED CUT ODDS 62% SHIPPING RISK elevated POLYMARKET VOL +13% GOLD $2334 VIX 14.2
MARKETS · CRYPTO · POLYMARKET · MACRO

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reprices.

The same Forecast Packet, tuned for market questions — current signals, scenario maps, market-moving triggers, and resolution risk.

Source-backed signals Probabilities, not promises Resolution-risk-aware
SIGNAL DESK · LIVE READ
Scenario Map
Hold 44%
Cut 34%
Hike 20%
Watch Next
CPI print — June 12
FOMC minutes — June 18
Jobs report — Jul 5
Hold Cut Hike

Built for market users — a desk, not a betting product.

Six question types Signal Atlas works in: Polymarket, crypto, commodities, rates, equities, and macro.

Polymarket

What public signals would move the "Fed cuts before September" market?

resolution-risk scenario
Crypto

What would have to break for ETH staking yield to compress this cycle?

on-chain macro
Commodities

How likely is an oil spike that touches my Q4 input costs?

supply geopolitics
Rates

Is the market over-pricing the odds of three cuts this year?

futures CPI
Equities

What macro signals precede a rotation out of mega-cap tech?

breadth flows
Macro

How likely is a shipping disruption touching global lead times?

logistics risk

One desk, four market lanes.

Each lane is scoped to a market category with its own signal mix, resolution language, and watch triggers.

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Prediction Markets

Polymarket-style questions, resolution language, and what moves the book — desk read, odds movement, and market sentiment.

desk read + 8%

Crypto

On-chain and macro signals, scenario maps, and cycle risk — ETF flows, DeFi metrics, and regulatory triggers.

watch · ETF flows
🛢

Commodities

Energy, metals, and input-cost shocks for operators — supply chains, geopolitics, and the calendar that matters.

status · skipping elevated
📈

Macro & Rates

Inflation, central banks, geopolitics, and the print calendar — CPI, jobs, FOMC, and what reprices the curve.

next print · CPI · Jun 12

Sample Market Packet

What comes back.

Illustrative market example. Live packets timestamp each signal and cite the source.

forecast_packet fed-cut-sep-2026.atlas
Question
Will the Fed deliver a rate cut before the September 2026 FOMC meeting?
Lean yes · MODERATE · 54%

The balance of public signals leans toward a cut before September — but the path is conditional on CPI and jobs data through July. A soft or flat print in either month compresses the window materially. "Lean yes" means the scenario is plausible and supported, not guaranteed.

Cut by Sep
54%
Hold through
36%
Hike / shock
12%
  • CPI came in below consensus for the third straight month — services inflation finally softening.
  • FOMC communication shifted to "data-dependent" framing as of the May meeting — open posture.
  • Fed funds futures imply two cuts priced by year-end — elevated vs. January pricing of one cut.
  • CPI print (June 12) — needs below 3.1%YoY to maintain current cut probability.
  • Jobs report (July 5) — payrolls below 150K or unemployment spike above 4.2% accelerates cut odds.
  • FOMC minutes (June 18) — watch for "insurance cut" language vs. "data-confident" framing.
  • The question resolves based on actual Fed action — not market pricing or sentiment. "Cut by September" requires a confirmed cut before the September 17 meeting.
  • Market-implied odds are observable but not authoritative — the Forecast Packet tracks public signals, not prediction market odds as the source of truth.

For operators with rate-sensitive positions: the current lean supports a slight duration bias in fixed income through mid-year, but do not build around a guaranteed cut. If CPI prints above 3.3% in June, the scenario compresses back to Hold and risk assets reprice accordingly. Watch the June CPI and July jobs — those two prints define the path through September.

BLS CPI · CME Fedwatch · FOMC minutes · Polymarket base

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