Source-backed · Scenario-based · No advice

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FED CUT ODDS
62%
CPI COOLING
+2
SHIPPING RISK
ELEV
POLYMARKET VOL
+18%
RESOLUTION
HIGH
NEXT PRINT
CPI JUN 12
SCENARIO MAP
58% Cut by Sep
30% Hold through
12% Hike / shock
WATCH TRIGGERS
• June & July CPI prints
• Jobs report < 100k
• FOMC dot-plot shift
Forecast Packet · Personal / Relocation Should we move our family to Lisbon next year?

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Is October a sensible time to book Lisbon, given strikes and weather?

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What would move the "Fed cuts before September" market?

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How likely is a shipping disruption touching global lead times?

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Forecast Packet fed-cut-sep-2026.atlas Conditional yes · Moderate · 58%
Bottom line

A cut by September is the modestly favored path, but it hinges on two more soft inflation prints. The market may be over-pricing certainty.

Current signals
  • Core CPI cooling two months running
  • Futures pricing ~62% by Sep
  • Labor softening but not breaking
Scenario map
Cut by Sep
58%
Hold through
30%
Hike / shock
12%
Watch triggers
  • June & July CPI prints
  • Next jobs report < 100k
  • FOMC dot-plot shift
Source trail BLS CPI · CME FedWatch · FOMC minutes · Polymarket book

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Same Forecast Packet structure, tuned for resolution risk, market-moving triggers, and live signal reads — on a tool-grade dark surface.

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odds +18%

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watch ETF flows

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shipping elevated

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next CPI · Jun 12

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